16 Mar 2009

There ain't no cure for these SNP blues?

From The Scotsman: 16 March 2009

"LABOUR yesterday hailed a poll which shows the party has overtaken the SNP in Holyrood voting intentions.

It comes amid falling support for an independence referendum. A YouGov survey found the SNP remains ahead on the constituency vote with 35 per cent, compared with Labour's 34 per cent. But on the regional vote Labour is on 32 per cent and the SNP on 30 percent.

This would give Labour 49 seats – up three, while the SNP would drop to 44 – down three. "

I say

That Labour is ahead at Westminster and to a lesser extent Europe comes as no great surprise - but getting that vote out will be a problem for the comrades in June so maybe not as rosy as it appears

Nor do the figures on independence referendum voting intentions surprise. Let's get real - the middle of a global recession ain't good time to go it alone. Thank god for Tavish's veto, long may he reign

But worrying is that the SNP Government is apparently behind on its own Holyrood patch, a patch where it controls the agenda, and only a few months ago it was comfortably ahead. Of course some of this slippage will be related to the global situation. But let's not kid ourselves this reflects some self inflicted damage; The humiliating abandonment of Local income Tax - and the pathetic reasons given: The failure to build new schools or hospitals: the catastrophically bad social housing outcomes ( yes -more money allocated ,but fewer house starts - what happens when you let duff anglo civil servants walk all over you with reject Blairite policies, Nicola ): That single tranferible excuse of a non existent £500 million cut - two years from now : That RBS link, including the ridiculous decision ot continue with Sir Fred’s sugar daddy, turned tax dodger, Sir George Mathieson as the Scottish Government's chief economic advisor ( a joke amongst the business community and politically astute, who all know he's still there for one reason - he's Eck's chum ): Creative Scotland.

And Ian Gray's Scottish Labour party - much better than that of Wendo . Understands it is in opposition and is playing the long game. Exploiting issues such as the ones listed above, and generally just more astute. And Jim Murphy - a winner. Look at his record from NUS to Eastwood - he is no clown.

Yes, there are some things that are outwith SNP control, but not all. Here the new heavyweight reinforcements of Alex Neil, Mike Russell and the fresh thinking of Keith Brown will help. But Nicola on Housing and a lesser extent health, and Fiona Hyslop and education ( try doing a single thing New Labour would not have done), and a few others - shape up or ship out.

The requirements now are altogether bigger than outmaneuvering a few lefties within the SNP caucus, or driving Margo and Dorothy-Grace out (what a waste of great folks) to get yourselves a bit higher up that list. It's now big issues, big forces - so get the finger out

Let this poll - and it's only a poll, and only one - be a warning.

The Unionist's gloves are off - time to bite back. But with measurable results, not slogans. Because, come polling day the SNP Government will be rightly judged on its record - and on quite a few vital fronts it ain’t that good. But two full years to put it right - but only if the SNP recognises these failures, not rally round the culprits.

And John Swinney – you are a star. Sort out the rest of them.

8 comments:

subrosa Monday, March 16, 2009  

That's no' fair expecting John to do all the work, but then he's the steadying influence.

They need to sort LIT out but more importantly they really need to get a grip with the capital funding business. Two years is long enough and they haven't produced. That will be the stick that breaks them if they don't get moving.

I only come on here to see what your choice of song is for the day :)

Conan the Librarian™ Monday, March 16, 2009  

Hah. Let it be...Independence!:-)

scunnert Monday, March 16, 2009  

" ... the middle of a global recession ain't good time to go it alone."

For someone who claims to be pro-independence you seem to be mighty critical of the only party that can come close to delivering. There are lots of policies where the SNP and I part company, but they still have my support on the main issue - independence. But not you - eh? This ain't a good time? Far from being a bad time to go it alone - it's the perfect time.

Naw - you're no the real thing. You're job is to sow dissent and division while pretending to be a nat. An agent provocateur is what you are. Someone who seeks to hold back independence until the last drop of oil has been squeezed out of our poor country.

Begone!

Aye We Can ! Monday, March 16, 2009  

That's right Scunnert - anyone with an independent brain, an agent provocature

Go on, go lose a referendum - feel good about youself and hand it all back to the unionists on a plate - like a lemming

Alternatvely, try and get out more. speak to Scottish folk without SNP cards - that's like 99.6% of the poplulation

And still banging on about that oil?....the worst reason for becoming independent, relying on a fast running out, price erratic and carbon polluting resource

And "a party close to delivering independence" - one less popular than new labour at the dog end of its corrupt and discredited reign - at UK, European, and now even Holyrood it appears

Scotland can do better - needs to. Will

Montague Burton Monday, March 16, 2009  

Hi Alan, do us a favour and do a Yoko on the Beatles.

I agree with lots of what you say, however, I do it in a manner of conciliation. I don't allow conspiracy fuelled paranoia to inform my posts, I don't go out of my way to insult and belittle those posters I don't think my intellectual equals and I don't think that one well written London speech backed with a cuddly video of the Grey man on the 78 bus equates to a renaissance in fortunes for the lying cunts of the Labour party.

Yes, I agree they've finally adapted to being in opposition. Are they ready to govern again in two years, with or without the Lib Dems? I doubt it. Will the voters want them back? One poll says yes, several say no. Grey's popularity and recognition figures are barely above Goldie's.

To base your support for independence on one skewed poll in a stream of ever changing manipulated poll data is fairly remiss of you.

You've said you didn't enjoy your time working in Holyrood. The grapevine informs me, that you were back recently, being horribly rude to a young girl civil servant, who was gobsmacked at your behaviour, ranking you as big an arsehole as Mike Rumbles! I have to say if I'd been there and witnessed your bullying rant, I'd have calmly and quietly smacked you one.

You contend that now in the midst of a recession is not the time to have a referendum on Independence, personally I can't think of a better time to let the people judge who they have more confidence in as manager of the public purse, Gordon brown or John Swinney.

Aye We Can ! Monday, March 16, 2009  

Monty

"More of an asshole than Mike Rumbles" - and this from the intellectual wing of the SNP!
My, your souces are good on a non event of in incident two months ago - ive been hald a dozen times since, joked with the security officer concerned, having had my apology to her acceted long ago. (And, incidentally the entire incident was sparked by the failure of that IT guru of your's George Reid to ensure that when you visited his £500m parly citizens - as opposed to MSPs and their staff - could get a mobile phine signal and of a wireless computer connection. They have better IT connectivity at McDonalds - but McDonalds want people to visit, and dont want to control you movements once you get there either )

On your more substantive point - apart from what the polls tell us and instinct tells me, history shows national movements the world over tend to do better in times of economic upswing when prospects look positive, people think positive, look for more, better. Not always, but mostly.

And look at Scotland when the SNP have done well - the late 60s early 70s - times of economic growth, optimism, inveresly bombing after the 1977 IMF slump. Then near zilch during the long recession of the 1980s, a brief recovery late 80s (Govan 88) and early 90s as the economy picked up, until Lamonts Black Wednesday put you back in your 20% box. And the SNP's best ever result?- 3 May 2007, towards end of the most sustained period of economic growth on record.

There are reasons for this I could go into, but the facts kind of speak for themseves

Look elsewhere and see how post current slump hass affected secessionist parties. The PNV have suffered in the Basque contry - out of office for the first time since autonomy the Bloc in Quebec defeated only recently by unionists - I could go on. But 2010 for a referendum on Scottish independence? - were I a unionist strategist i'd pick it. Thank god for Tavish.

But win at Holyrood again in 2011 on a clear independence referendum mandate, and as the economy inevitably recovers, people begin to feel positve again ( and perhpas with a tory UK government wit a small majority willing to parley, to get rid of that anti-tory block of Scottish MPs) and it all looks kinda rosy for me - but maybe not for Mike Rumbles.

But you've got to actually win in May 2011 - and my original blog posting was a small contribution to help achieve that, identify some of the obstacles, the things the SNP can itself put right. And I see little evidence of any objective mid term assesment in the SNP , other than "blame London" - or call me, first an "agent provocatuer", and then an asshole. Sure to encourage others to put in their tuppence worth?

Or do I miss the point?

But I will retire the Beatles - since you asked so nicely

Montague Burton Tuesday, March 17, 2009  

Thanks Alan the Beatles were doing my napper in.

I'm torn between a referendum this term and the possibility of going to the polls in 2011 with the sentient electorate aware that they were denied their first ever vote on Independence.

I agree that in times of recession Independence suffers. Folk are by nature cautious. In Scotland, we're the biggest fearties on the planet. Others seek their Independence through bullets, bombs and barracking. We blog.

However, as I alluded to yesterday, why should we continue to have faith in a system and a government that has bent over for the Banking industry and allowed it to shaft them? Radical times call for radical solutions. Our best hope of that is the SNP. With all of us pulling in the same direction and not getting downhearted over one telephone poll and going all 'we're doomed'...

As to the Parliament, if only there had been someone there from the beginning telling them loudly and often, how crap the building was for forthcoming technological appliances... ;)

Aye We Can ! Tuesday, March 17, 2009  

Regarding the parly and IT - they were told this from day 1 loud an clear - it;s in minute after minute. ANd remember, there was no great furture profing invoved - near everyone had mobile phones in 2000, and wireless computer connections pretty common place as well

Why was it fucked up , why has it not been fixed? ( you can get a mobile phone signal in the Paris Underground!) I know why? Anyone with any insight at all into the Scottish civil servants and the plants they have running the scottish parliament ( superficially useless,but in fact quite clever, cleverer than the MSPs) should 10 years on surely know why.

Call any one of the big four phone networks and for next to nothing, probably absolutely nothing, and they could have this problem solved in little over a week

But that misses the point - mobile phones and mobile intenet liberate, empower - without the need to ask Sir George's, or his placemen's permission.

Where is it he is now - the South Caucuses?

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